There is a special kind of intelligence for dealing with risk and uncertainty. It doesn’t correlate with IQ, and most psychologists failed to spot it because it is found in such a disparate, rag-tag group of people - American weather-forecasters, professional gamblers, and hedge-fund managers, for example.
This book shows just how important risk intelligence is. Many people in positions which require high risk intelligence - doctors, financial regulators and bankers, for instance - seem unable to navigate what Evans calls the “darkened room”, the domain of doubt and uncertainty. When a doctor tells you that there’s a 90% chance you’re suffering from a particular ailment, the real chance is probably closer to 15%.
Risk Intelligence is a traveller’s guide to the twilight zone of probabilities and speculation. Evans shows us how risk intelligence is vital to making good decisions, from dealing with climate change to combating terrorism. He argues that we can all learn a lot from expert gamblers, not just about money, but about how to make decisions in all aspects of our lives.
Evans launched a website in 2010, with a test you can take to measure you own Risk Intelligence Quotient, or RQ. Over 40,000 people have taken the test so far, and the surprising findings to emerge from the data are revealed in the book. Test yourself here for free: http://www.projectionpoint.com/ and read the author’s blog at http://blog.projectionpoint.com/